It's I Smell Desperation Thing

Dear America,

this is transparency people, can you see it? if the emperor were wearing any more clothes, he'd be naked.

yesterday, we were at 8.1% unemployment (supposedly);
today, we are at 7.8%!

And the White House chooses to come off as subdued?
If this news be true, they would all be jumping up and down.  Obama would be dancing at the podium and singing "I'm so in love with you..."  Champagne would be popping on the bus.  Not even the market is celebrating...

Instead, we get "we still got more work to do." um

"'While there is more work that remains to be done, today's employment report [from the Labor Department] provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to heal from the wounds inflicted by the worst downturn since the Great Depression,' the chairman of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, Alan Krueger, said in a White House blog post. His comments were the administration's first response to the jobs report."

Sure, I guess, more work does need to be done; especially that pesky FULL-TIME work.

Current numbers also tell us that part-time job finders who wanted full-time employment ROSE 7.5% to 8.6 million.

[with real numbers we would be at over 11% unemployment]

But let's run with the increase of 114,000 jobs in September [even though we all know we need like, 150k just to break even].  An increase in 114,000 jobs over thirty days, equals 3,800 jobs/day, divided by all 50 states, equals 76 new jobs per day...

How does that even keep up with college graduates, at about 1,750,000/year?  Perhaps it helps if we subtract the seasonally adjusted college rate to account for the occupiers not actually looking for work.

BUT  JUST HOW in the world does the rate drop this much all at once?

This was the picture in July, from Fox News --

"The unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3 percent in July, reflecting a stagnant economic picture as hiring improved but not by enough to make a dent in the sea of unemployed Americans.

The Labor Department report, in a glimmer of positive news after three straight months of dismal jobs numbers, showed that hiring reached its best level since February, with 163,000 jobs added.

But the number brings the economy back to treading-water status. The economy added an average of 151,000 jobs a month this year, roughly the same as last year's pace. That's not enough to satisfy the 12.8 million Americans who are unemployed. It would take 250,000 new jobs a month to rapidly bring the unemployment rate down."

In August, it ticked down to 8.1% --

"The private sector added 103,000 jobs despite a loss of 13,000 manufacturing jobs. Federal, state and local governments cut 7,000 jobs. Job gains were strongest in food services and bars, professional and technical services, and health care," having previously duly noted the size of the workforce "continues to drop."

We add 114,000 jobs in September,  make adjustments to the July and August numbers to the tune of adding 86,000 jobs -- and the unemployment plummets to 7.8%?

okay.

This is transparency during a re-election campaign... you know we, the people, can see you, right?

So let's pause for a moment to let you look at a graph, from Gallop, showing the rise and fall of the seasonally adjusted, along with unadjusted, through the years. GO HERE.

So in other words, we are back to where Obama came in.

 So at the risk of going in circles, from the NY Times:

"Adding to the positive news, job gains were revised upward by 40,000 for July (to 181,000) and by 46,000 for August (to 142,000), which had been considered a disappointing month, casting a slightly rosier hue on the summer slowdown."

and September adds only 114,000, and we drop from 8.1 to 7.8%?

How do they [the number nerds] get there?

What did this administration do to get such a drop?  And fascinating is, as fascinating does, you know, being so close to the election and all...

In real life, we freaked out when under the Bush administration, the price of a gallon of gas went up to 4.00/gallon; of course, it was adjusted back down to 1.78/gallon by the end of his term.

Yesterday, I noted in the fine print, that I paid $4.79/gallon, and at the time, only filled the tank to the half-way point.  Overnight, the price jumped another  20 cents. We are at $5.00 a gallon, folks [rumor has it, LA is at six...you have to be a star to afford that].

FACT:  More people are working part time, when they want full time -- or they have simply stopped looking for work.

FACT: A loaf of bread costs easily four bucks; a gallon of milk is just a lot.

Force feeding the numbers now, here's another graph from Gallop, taking a second look at the August numbers -- citing within the nitty gritty details, underemployment at 17 %.

And yet today, we wake up to seeing 7.8% unemployment?  As if that, in and of itself, is a really good thing? America usually operates somewhere between four and six percent unemployment...see here...yes, it's actually two charts in one place, so get over it, get over the laziness factor and buck up buttercup. Or not, no matter....

Here's Obama, just after he got elected in November of 2008:

"In a Chicago press conference Nov. 7, the same day the unemployment data were released, Obama acknowledged the job losses and their toll on the workforce, noting, "we're going to have to act swiftly to resolve it." He went on to say that until Jan. 20, the Bush administration is in charge, but, "Immediately after I become president, I'm going to confront this economic crisis head-on by taking all necessary steps to ease the credit crisis, help hardworking families, and restore growth and prosperity." Among some top priorities Obama mentioned:

• a rescue plan for the middle class "that invests in immediate efforts to create jobs and provide relief to families that are watching their paychecks shrink and their life savings disappear." A fiscal-stimulus plan and another extension of unemployment benefits would be part of that plan;
• policies to help the automobile industry adjust amid the financial turmoil;
• longer-term policies to bolster the economy, such as clean energy, health care, education and tax-relief for middle-class families.

Obama underscored that fixing the situation won't come easily or quickly--but it can be accomplished through a concerted, non-partisan effort"

I love, love, love going back to first intentions.  And can't you just feel the spring in his step?

Here's the thing, people.  

This is it.

We have seen the best this president has to offer.

Let me be clear, we have seen the best this president has to offer:

1. fiscal-stimulus and extended unemployment benefits, check 
2. auto industry bail out, check, check 
3. long term policy, four years in, for "clean energy, health care, education, and tax relief for middle-class families," check, check, check, check.

Of course, the fiscal-stimulus was not so shovel ready; GM and Chrysler are still not out of the woods, being nick-named Government Motors and operating at a net-loss to taxpayers; the bolstering of clean energy had more losers than winners, the health care act is already increasing premiums by 20% and the tax mandate is now official -- after the Supreme Court decision -- increasing taxes on EVERY family, while education sees the largest municipal strike in years, with universal test scores showing widespread, prevalent delinquency lives everywhere, and about that tax-relief for the middle-class -- oh that's on borrowed time until the end of the year.

THIS IS IT.  Back in November of 2008, the president noted the highlights, his "top priorities".

THIS is what he had in mind way back when and THIS is where we are at four years later.

THIS is the president acting in a concerted, non-partisan effort. [okaaay...]

THIS is it, folks.

THIS is the president creating our reality of the last four years -- and well into ticking off his to-do list; he did it already...this guy's got nothin' on lazy, while unfortunately for him, no more new ideas.

He has accomplished EVERYTHING he set out to do -- even the gas prices haven't been left out...thank you, Chu.

 

The outcome of "TRICKLE DOWN GOVERNMENT" is upon us.   And we cannot expect anything different over the next four years...if you all give him that -- as we have already seen the best of his best.

"Immediately after I become president, I'm going to confront this economic crisis head-on by taking all necessary steps to ease the credit crisis, help hardworking families, and restore growth and prosperity."  

It's in Obama's words.  This is Obama after "confronting" the economic crisis head-on.

And according to me, G, it's a head-on collision; and like our "unemployment numbers" of this morning, there's nothing to see here, move along, unless you're really into road kill with a side of bull.

I smell desperation.

Make it a Good Day, G

Dear America,

"They were all kind of squirming in their seats ...
It was interesting to watch,"

Obama said.

This, from the President who is supposed to be all about bringing the two sides together. Interesting.

Mocking republicans at every chance he gets; does he think we can't hear him?

It's getting old.

It's getting old because he is forgetting HE IS THE PRESIDENT of the UNITED STATES -- he doesn't have to go there; matter of fact, you said you wouldn't.  Oh what's the use, it's not like he's listening.

Republicans couldn't applaud to your so-called "tax cuts" during the State of the Dis-Union Pep Rally because they know the truth; they also know, along with the rest of us, the repeal of the Bush tax cuts are around the corner.  They also know, along with the rest of us, that we didn't feel a thing.

Are you feeling the tax cuts?

Are you feeling the love?

Are you feeling like we're back from the brink?

"There has never been a program of this scale, moved at this speed,

 that has been enacted as effectively
and as transparently as the recovery act,"

Obama said.

"This team has done an outstanding job."

Obama said.

as if telling us one more time,  maybe we'll understand

 "They're unwilling to step up,"

[in case you didn't know -- referring to Republicans]

Biden said.

"Well not us."  Biden said.

No, not you guys; you're the good guys -- the other guys are evil, the party of no, with stupidity or swastikas written all over them, astro-turf wannabes, and all but acting alone -- not to jump to any conclusions, or anything -- but can't we all just get along?  It's not personal, it's business.
 

"They were all kind of squirming in their seats ...
It was interesting to watch,"

Obama said.

Not that I was in favor of it at the time, but something tells me it was the TARP program that really stopped the financial collapse...you know, the one enacted as the last hurrah from the previous administration ..you know, the one in which the sole purpose was to stabilize the financial markets -- institutions and lenders -- in order to prevent the pending doom and gloom and mass hysteria.

Oh yeah,
and also allow for banks to shed their troubled assets, mostly mortgage backed securities that were under water; but ultimately, the goal was to create a flow -- a massive pipeline of dough, if you will -- of credit available for main street... by bailing the banks out with main street tax payer revenue.  Huh?

Interesting, isn't it. (get used to hearing a lot of that, for it is the word of the day -- interesting -- not my fault, though, Obama started it)

There is some kind of new math going on these days, that is for sure.

One thing that has confused me (but who am I kidding, everything about this is confusing) is the process of implementation -- in that, how can you enact a 700 Billion dollar bailout and then still not have all the monies distributed over a year later?  It was an emergency situation, right?  It had to be done immediately.  Well, I found my answer in an easy read from back in the day, October of 2008, and discovered a quick lesson in asset miss-management in portfolio.com.and in a word, it's complicated.

Anyway, interesting to note, that most of the solvent banks are back from the brink, having now returned, as most of you know, all of the funds loaned by the federal government (not to be confused with the added tax/fine/punishment that they -- the fed -- tacked on after the fact).
What is more interesting, with a click back to the TARP's show me the money site, is a look at the top four recipients:  AIG (45B), Fannie Mae (60B), GM (50B) and Freddie Mac (50B)

-- note the amounts "returned" to the Treasury...oh, but wait...

"There has rarely been a less loved

or more necessary emergency program than TARP,"

Obama said.

 "Launched hastily under the last administration,

the TARP program was flawed,

and we have worked hard to correct those flaws
 and manage it properly."

Obama said. 

Doink, der it is.

That is interesting,

when most of the task of administrating such funds has fallen under your watch and under the command of your Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner; let me put it another way, you guys can stop the program at anytime, but you seem to like it so much, you have extended it until October of 2010. That is interesting to watch.

 

But even kids know when it maybe time to follow the latest sales pitch from Lending Tree (oh, the irony), it's the one which applauds the simple idea:

 

 "YOU TO THE RESCUE!"

(showing a regular joe reflecting a superhero persona in the mirror)

 

The latest polls should tell Obama all he needs to know: only 6% of Americans believe that His Stimulus Plan has actually worked to stimulate real job growth -- 6%!  oy vey, talk about troubled assets...and this is coming from a NYTimes poll.  Ouch, perhaps something isn't too big to fail?

 

Obama told us the unemployment rate would never see the light of day over 8% IF we followed his lead; and we all know what happened after that...interesting to watch, yes sir ree.

 

This may be a good time to jump to a little graph...

 

But then there is another ad buzzing around too -- this one from a law firm, the Property Law Group, out to help troubled mortgage holders in the face of foreclosure.  This one may be more telling -- with the new found glory that we don't need to take responsibility for anything anymore, as they begin by saying, "the banks wrote bad loans but you are not to blame..."  I can't even continue.

 

Interesting to watch, yes indeed.

 

Make it a Good Day, G

 

"Learned Institutions ought to be favorite objects
with every free people. 

 They throw light over the public mind

which is the best security

against crafty and dangerous encroachments

on the public liberty."

-- James Madison

 

or they teach how to do it.